The nursing workforce is projected to split in two by 2038, with some roles forecasted to exceed demand and others predicted to fall short.

Data was gathered from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Health Resources and Services Administration’s National Center for Health Workforce Analysis to understand how pay, employment, projected growth and projected shortages stack up across the seven nursing positions the BLS tracks.

By 2038, HRSA projects nurse practitioners will reach 175% of demand — a surplus of nearly 329,000 — and nurse anesthetists 113%. Meanwhile, registered nurses and licensed practical nurses are projected to reach 97% and 88% of demand, respectively, for a combined shortfall of about 250,000 people. HRSA does not project adequacy for nurse midwives, nursing instructors or nursing assistants.

The near-term picture is one of contraction. Five of seven nursing roles decreased in size between 2024 and 2025. Nursing instructors saw the steepest employment drop at 14.9%, followed by nurse midwives at 7.9%, even as both posted the largest gains in projected 10-year growth. Nurse practitioner remains the fastest-growing healthcare profession overall, though its projected growth cooled to 40% from 46% a year earlier.

Pay told a more steady story. Licensed practical and vocational nurses saw the largest raise at 7.6%, while nurse practitioners and nurse midwives saw small pay drops.

Here are the seven nursing positions ranked by 2025 pay, along with their pay change, employment change, projected growth and projected 2038 adequacy: